Anshel Pfeffer :Israel Strike in Syria: Putin Turning Blind Eye to Israeli Attacks, as Long as Assad Survives
In the short time it took between the firing of
an SA-5 anti-aircraft missile against Israel Air Force planes on a
“routine reconnaissance mission” over Lebanon and the decision to bomb the Syrian missile battery in response, Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were well aware that Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu would be landing in Israel within hours on Monday morning.
It doesn’t seem to have caused them to hesitate – barely two hours
passed from the moment the Syrians fired on Israeli aircraft until the
battery was hit.
The
attack on the so-called “Ramadan” SA-5 battery, which was situated
about 50 kilometers (31 miles) from Damascus, was well within the area
covered by Russian anti-aircraft batteries and fighter planes operating
from the Khmeimim air base on Syria’s Mediterranean coast. It was
preceded by Israeli notification to the Russians through the hotline
that connects their operations center in Khmeimim and IAF headquarters
in Tel Aviv.
Over
two years since the Russians first deployed their forces in Syria, the
military coordination between Israel and Russia is still operating
surprisingly smoothly.
On
the ground, Russia is working together with President Bashar Assad’s
regime and other allies – the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and Hezbollah.
In the sky, it continues to allow Israel to operate when needed against
its own allies. Most of the strikes attributed to Israel, unlike
Monday’s, remain unacknowledged by Jerusalem, and Russia turns a blind
eye to them.
Some
Israeli military planners have been surprised that Russia hasn’t acted
to curb Israeli operations in its new sphere of influence. But those
close to President Vladimir Putin’s thinking were already predicting such a situation in September 2015, when the first Russian Sukhoi aircraft landed in Khmeimim.
>> With unprecedented chaos in Washington, Israel sets new red lines over Iran in Syria | Analysis >>
Putin
has a high appreciation of Israel’s military capabilities and believes
he can work together with Netanyahu. As far as he’s concerned, as long
as Israel doesn’t directly jeopardize Assad’s survival, it can continue
operating above Syria.
Russia’s
alliance on the ground with Iran is one of convenience, and Putin is
happy to keep Jerusalem and Tehran in balance. The only question is how
long he can keep juggling all these balls.
The Israel Defense Forces’
official statements after the strike stressed that, as far as Israel is
concerned, “the matter is closed,” and that as long as Israel’s freedom
to operate is not “thwarted,” it has “no interest in destabilizing the
region.”
But
the impunity with which Israeli warplanes have operated over Lebanon
and Syria for many years now is not the only thing that’s at stake.
Iran
has steadfastly supported and aided Assad’s mass murder of hundreds of
thousands of Syrian civilians since 2011, investing billions of dollars
and the lives of thousands of Afghan and Pakistani Shi’ite fighters. Now
it wants to reap the benefits.
Israel
is relying on the Kremlin to block Iran’s plans to establish its own
air base on Syrian soil and to build a naval dock on the Mediterranean.
So far, Russia has yet to state a clear position or give any clear
commitments. On the ground, Iranian generals are still scouting for
locations and building work has yet to begin. Is the Kremlin holding
them up? According to reports from Moscow, the Russian government has
refused to share its own naval facility in Syria, Tartus, with Iran.
The
SA-5 was originally supplied to Syria by the Soviet Union, to help it
counter Israeli air operations. In subsequent decades, the relationship
has been transformed. Israel and Russia have become wary counterparts,
if not allies.
Defense
Minister Shoygu will receive a full briefing on Monday evening when he
arrives to meet Lieberman at IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv. But the main
issues on the agenda will be Russia’s long-term plans for the region.
Anshel Pfeffer
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