alking
to the press after his meeting last March with US President Donald
Trump, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a seemingly minor comment
that, in the course of his meetings with Trump, he had attained a very
important achievement for Israeli national security. This comment is now
emerging as more dramatic than it originally seemed.Since then,
rumors have circulated regarding the nature of this achievement. By now
we are pretty confident that in those talks, Netanyahu received an
explicit promise that Trump would “go all the way” regarding the Iran
nuclear agreement. According to a senior Israeli political source
speaking on condition of anonymity, “Trump sounded more determined than
ever, convinced even more than Netanyahu, in the vital and urgent need
to amend the agreement or simply abandon it and bash the ayatollah
regime.”
According to sources privy to the contacts between the two, Netanyahu
exploited the fact that Trump has the heart of a businessman who is out
to make a profit, in order to prove that the nuclear agreement with
Iran contains no possible benefits for the West or the free world. Since
then, Trump continues to use the same rhetoric and repeat that the
advantages of the agreement to the United States are minimal and not
enough to justify the US removal of sanctions over Iran.
After the meeting with Trump, Netanyahu’s associates scattered
additional hints. “In the near future, we’ll see changes of personnel in
the administration,” said one Netanyahu associate, on condition of
anonymity. “Trump is going after Iran with everything he’s got. He won’t
blink or vacillate or take prisoners. He understands the magnitude of
the danger.” This, to Israelis, is tantamount to having all of their
dreams come true, all the more so for Netanyahu, and all in one decisive
fell swoop. Finally, Netanyahu receives an American president who views
the Iranian danger exactly as he does, eye to eye. Sometimes even more
than him. The recent appointments of John Bolton as national security
adviser and Mike Pompeo as secretary of state serve to advance
Netanyahu’s dreams.
But this is exactly the reality that makes Europe anxious. (To be more precise, it makes
France, Germany
and Britain anxious.) Trump met with French President Emmanuel Macron
on April 24, followed by Angela Merkel on April 27. Even the British are
making their opinions known. Europe is trying to guard the nuclear
agreement with all its might, but is worried that it is not strong
enough. And Trump, despite the fatherly affection he demonstrated to
Macron, showed no signs of caving in during the meetings between the two
of them over the weekend. The American demands for fixing the agreement
remain: imposing real sanctions on the Iranian missile program,
ratcheting up the monitoring of the nuclear facilities and deepening
transparency. The Americans also insist that the “
sunset period” — the period when nuclear restrictions end, in about a decade — be corrected.
According to the Americans, the agreement in its present form has no
remedy for the sunset period. The Americans are demanding that an
immediate sanctions mechanism be put in place without having to get
authorizations from anyone, if and when it emerges that the Iranians are
renewing uranium enrichment to a military level. The Europeans
understand that such a mechanism will never be approved by Tehran, and
they are trying to create “fuzzier” rules. Trump refuses.
As things stand now, no insurance company would insure the lifespan of the agreement between Iran and the powers.
The Europeans are trying to massage Trump’s ego by telling him that
they agree in principle over a need to correct certain aspects of the
agreement.
The Europeans, who are stuck between a rock and a hard place, have
decided to change their tactics. It became known to Al-Monitor that the
current European pressure on Trump does not focus on the essential
aspects of the disagreement, but on the tactical realm. The Europeans
want Trump to sign on May 12 the waiver over continued removal of
American sanctions on Iran. This would facilitate continued efforts and
contacts between Washington and Europe regarding “amending the
agreement.” The Europeans are trying to massage Trump’s ego by telling
him that they agree in principle over a need to correct certain aspects
of the agreement. But they warn him that refusal to sign could generate
rapid escalation and a domino effect leading to a breakdown of the
agreement and, perhaps, even a renewed Iranian rush toward the bomb.
“Give us time, we’ll figure it out together,” the Europeans say. Trump
listens, but doesn’t show any signs of capitulation. Behind him stands a
new, militant White House team, and behind them stands Israel. At the
moment, the hawks have the upper hand. Netanyahu tells Trump in the
various contacts they share that time is running out. This is the hour
of decision. The Europeans are trying to drag you into the swamp. It’s
now or never.
This is a poker game between two opposing sides with four players. On
one side is Trump and behind him is Israel in the supporting actor
role. On the other side is Iran, with the Europeans as supporting
actors. The poker game is occasionally replaced by Russian roulette, in
which everyone threatens everyone else. It’s not clear who doesn’t have
bullets in their revolvers and who does. But everyone is afraid of
Trump.
As if we don’t have enough dynamite to set the Middle East on fire already, another mysterious
aerial attack
took place in Syria overnight, on April 29. This time, a military
target was destroyed near Aleppo’s military airfield, and the Iranians
reported on Monday morning, April 30, the loss of 18 combat soldiers in
the assault. (Tehran later
denied this report.) This attack was carried out only hours after Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman
said
at the Jerusalem Post's annual New York conference that Israel "will
maintain freedom of operation in all of Syria,” adding that it will
prevent Iranian presence there at all costs. At the same time, Netanyahu
sat in Jerusalem with Secretary of State Pompeo, who again declared
that the United States would quit the Iran nuclear agreement if it is
not amended.
This predicament is one of the most dangerous and volatile crises
that the region, perhaps the entire world, has known in recent years. It
is characterized by the bluster of all the antagonists and the
weakening of the checks and balance system. Neither Netanyahu nor Trump
look like they intend to wink first. Mossad chief Yossi Cohen is
responsible for the wealth of intelligence on Iranian activities that
Israel transfers to the West on an almost daily basis. He was recently
quoted as
saying that he is “100% certain” that Iran remains militarily committed to developing its nuclear program.
This argument, which Israel has stated before and keeps stating,
proves Netanyahu’s theory: Iran lacked good faith in the recent years,
so it must not be allowed to keep secret any of its contacts with the
International Atomic Energy Agency.
Netanyahu's "
nuke speech"
on April 30 was a once-in-a-lifetime performance. It was designed to
fortify the position of Trump in the battle against Europe. Netanyahu
didn’t produce a smoking gun, but he did offer conclusive proof
regarding the extent of the Iranian lie.
What will Iran do now? In light of Tehran's uncompromising rhetoric
in recent weeks, we need to take note of the riots and disturbances that
continue on a daily basis in Iran's large cities. Last week, a
corpse was discovered in Iran that is suspected of being the body of Reza Shah, the first shah of Iran. Afterward, a
video clip
reached the West showing tens of thousands of Iranians shouting “Reza
Shah.” Such a video clip, taken in a stadium in the heart of Tehran,
only emphasizes the fact that the ayatollah regime is under siege. We
must now hope that this internal conflict won’t turn bloody. In that
case, the ayatollah regime will turn its anger also toward the sieging
powers on the outside.
Ben Caspit
is a columnist for Al-Monitor's Israel Pulse. He is also a senior
columnist and political analyst for Israeli newspapers and has a daily
radio show and regular TV shows on politics and Israel. On Twitter:
@BenCaspit
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